September 25, 2011

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

by Morgan Bazilia et al.

- We present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.

Bazilia, M., P. Nussbaumer, H-H Rogner, A. Brew-Hammond, V. Foster, S. Pachauri, E. Williams, M. Howells, P. Niyongabo, L. Musaba, B.Ó. Gallachóir, M. Radka, D.M. Kammen (2011). "Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa." FEEM Note di lavoro No. 68.2011, Sept 2011.