by Samuel Jovan Okullo and Frederic Reynes
- Following the peak in US crude oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future crude oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces.
Okullo, S.J. and F. Reynes (2010). "Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Peal Oil?" USAEE Working Paper No. 10-053, available at SSRN, Nov 2010.