The Extreme Uncertainty of Extreme Climate Change: An Overview and Some Implications

by Martin L. Weitzman

- The possibility of catastrophic climate change is characterized by deep structural uncertainties in the science coupled with an economic inability to evaluate meaningfully the welfare losses from high temperatures. The probability of a disastrous collapse of planetary welfare from global warming seems non-negligible, even if this low probability is very difficult to quantify. Through informal reasoning, elementary examples, and simple numerical exercises, this paper attempts to convey an overview of some of the background uncertainties behind extreme climate change.

Weitzman, M.L. (2009). "The Extreme Uncertainty of Extreme Climate Change: An Overview and Some Implications." Harvard University, mimeo, Oct 2009.