Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Are There Any?

by Stefan Hochrainer

- This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences.

Hochrainer, S. (2009). "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Are There Any?" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 4968, June 2009.