November 24, 2008

Changing the Allocation Rules in the EU ETS: Impact on Competitiveness and Economic Efficiency.

by Philippe Quirion and Damien Demailly

- This paper assesses five proposals for the future of the EU greenhouse gas Emission Trading Scheme (ETS): pure grandfathering allocation of emission allowances (GF), output-based allocation (OB), auctioning (AU), auctioning with border adjustments (AU-BA), and finally output-based allocation in sectors exposed to international competition combined with auctioning in electricity generation (OB-AU). The authors look at the impact on production, trade, CO2 leakage and welfare.

Quirion, P. and D. Demailly (2008). "Changing the Allocation Rules in the EU ETS: Impact on Competitiveness and Economic Efficiency." FEEM Working Papers 89.08, Nov 2008.

Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of Tradable White Certificates Compared to Taxes, Subsidies and Regulations.

by Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet and Philippe Quirion

- Tradable White Certificates (TWC) schemes, also labelled Energy-Efficiency Certificates schemes, were recently implemented in Great Britain, Italy and France. Energy suppliers have to fund a given quantity of energy efficiency measures, or to buy so-called "white certificates" from other suppliers who exceed their target. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model to compare TWC schemes to other policy instruments for energy efficiency.

Giraudet, L.G. and P. Quirion (2008). "Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of Tradable White Certificates Compared to Taxes, Subsidies and Regulations." FEEM Working Papers 88.08, Nov 2008.

Carbonomics: How to Fix the Climate and Charge it to OPEC.

by Steven E. Stoft

- Carbonomics is a 270 page downloadable book that covers national and international energy policy from an economic perspective. Part 1 dismisses several popular myths. In Part 2, global energy markets are shown to induce a "global rebound effect" such that every gallon of oil conserved or replaced by alternative fuels induces the use of an estimated 0.26 additional gallons by the rest of the world through a world-oil-price effect. Part 3 proposes an "untax" as the central national energy policy. This would tax carbon and refund all the revenues on an equal-per-person basis. Part 4 argues that developing countries will never accept meaningful emission caps and that the Kyoto Protocol should be replaced by global carbon pricing.

Stoft, S.E. (2008). "Carbonomics: How to Fix the Climate and Charge it to OPEC." Available at SSRN.

Tradable Permits in Developing Countries: Evidence from air pollution in Santiago, Chile.

by Jessica Coria and Thomas Sterner

- Santiago was one of the first cities outside the OECD to implement a tradable permit program to control air pollution. This paper looks closely at the program’s performance over the past ten years, stressing its similarities and discrepancies with trading programs implemented in developed countries, and analyzing how it has reacted to regulatory adjustments and market shocks.

Coria, J. and T. Sterner (2008). "Tradable Permits in Developing Countries: Evidence from air pollution in Santiago, Chile." Goteborgs Universiteit Working Papers in Economics 326, Nov 2008.

Average Power Contracts can Mitigate Carbon Leakage.

by Giorgia Oggioni and Yves Smeers

- The progressive relocation of part of the Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs) out of Europe is one of the possible consequences of the combination of emission charges and higher electricity prices entailed by the EU-Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). In order to mitigate this effect, EIIs have asked for special power contracts whereby they would be supplied from dedicated power capacities at average (capacity, fuel, transmission and emission allowance) costs. The paper models this situation on a prototype power system calibrated on four countries of Central Western Europe.

Oggioni, G. and Y. Smeers (2008). "Average Power Contracts can Mitigate Carbon Leakage." CORE Discussion Paper 2008/62, Nov 2008.

The Impact of the Unilateral EU Commitment on the Stability of International Climate Agreements.

by Thierry Brechet, Johan Eyckmans, François Gerard, Philippe Marbaix, Henry Tulkens and Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele

- This paper analyzes the negotiation strategy of the European Union regarding the formation of an international climate agreement for the post-2012 era. Game theoretical stability concepts are used to explore incentives for key players in the climate policy game to join future climate agreements. A minus 20 percent unilateral commitment strategy by the EU with a unilateral minus 30 percent emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countrijavascript:void(0)
Publish Postes. Using a numerical integrated assessment climate-economy simulation model, carbon leakage effects are found to be negligible.

Brechet, T., J. Eyckmans, F. Gerard, P. Marbaix, H. Tulkens and J-P Van Ypersele (2008). "The Impact of the Unilateral EU Commitment on the Stability of International Climate Agreements." CORE Discussion Paper 2008/61, Nov 2008.

Pricing and Policy for Carbon Capture and Sequestration with Learning by Doing.

by David Nissen

- This paper derives the efficient tax-subsidy policy in an energy-economy-environment growth model with carbon emission externalities, and a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) sector with learning by doing (LBD) externalities. First the socially optimum pricing, quantities, cashflows, and valuation are derived. Then, the paper addresses the government tax-subsidy policies for carbon emissions and CCS that support socially efficient economic behavior with a competitive CCS industry.

Nissen, D. (2008). "Pricing and Policy for Carbon Capture and Sequestration with Learning by Doing." USAEE Working Paper No. 08-013.

Greenhouse-gas Emission Controls and International Carbon Leakage through Trade Liberalization.

by Jota Ishikawa

- This paper studies greenhouse-gas (GHG) emission controls in the presence of carbon leakage through international firm relocation. The Kyoto Protocol requires developed countries to reduce GHG emissions by a certain amount. Comparing emission quotas with emission taxes, we show that taxes coupled with lower trade costs facilitate more firm relocations than quotas do, causing more international carbon leakage. Thus, if a country is concerned about global emissions, emission quotas would be adopted to mitigate the carbon leakage. Firm relocation entails a trade-off between trade liberalization and emission regulations. Emission regulations may be hampered by trade liberalization, and vice versa.

Ishikawa, J. (2008). "Greenhouse-gas Emission Controls and International Carbon Leakage through Trade Liberalization." Research Institute for Economic & Business Administration, Kobe University, Discussion Paper Series 231, Nove 2008.

The Competitiveness Effects of the EU Climate Policy.

by Sonja Peterson and Gernot Klepper

- This paper uses the multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model DART to assess the impacts of the recent EU climate policy proposals for the competitiveness of the European economies and specific sectors. There are three general insights. First, the effects of EU climate policies on competitiveness are relatively small. Secondly, there is no uniform effect across the member states of the EU. Finally, the changes in competitiveness are strongly influenced by the choice of the particular policy design.

Peterson, S. and G. Klepper (2008). "The Competitiveness Effects of the EU Climate Policy."
The Kiel Insitute for the World Economy 1464, Nov 2008.

Keeping the Government Whole: The Impact of a Cap-and-Dividend Policy for Curbing Global Warming on Government Revenue and Expenditure.

by James Boyce and Matthew Riddle

- In this paper, we consider policies to ensure that additional revenues to government compensate adequately for the additional costs to government as a result of the carbon cap. The authors compare the distributional impacts of two policy alternatives: (i) setting aside a portion of the revenue from carbon permit auctions for government, and distributing the remainder of the revenue to the public in the form of tax-free dividends; or (ii) distributing all of the carbon revenue to households as taxable dividends.

Boyce, J. and M. Riddle (2008). "Keeping the Government Whole: The Impact of a Cap-and-Dividend Policy for Curbing Global Warming on Government Revenue and Expenditure." Political Economy Research Institute University of Massachusetts, Amherst working paper series, Nov 2008.

Energy and Environment Report 2008.

by the Euroepan Environmental Agency

- This report assesses the key drivers, environmental pressures and some impacts from the production and consumption of energy, taking into account the main objectives of the European policy on energy and environment including: security of supply, competitiveness, increased energy efficiency and renewable energy, and environmental sustainability. The report addresses six main policy questions and presents trends existing within the EU compared to other countries.

EEA (2008). "Energy and Environment Report 2008." European Environmental Agency Report No 6/2008.

National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change.

by EPA

- This National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change provides an overview of the likely effects of climate change on water resources and the nation’s clean water and safe drinking water programs. This final strategy also describes 40 specific actions the National Water Program intends to take to adapt program implementation in light of climate change.

EPA (2008). "National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change. Office of Water Releases Final Climate Change Strategy." Environmental Protection Agency, Nov 2008.

Policymaking for Posterity.

by Lawrence H. Summers and Richard J. Zeckhauser

- Policymaking for posterity involves current decisions with distant consequences. Contrary to conventional prescriptions, the authors conclude that the greater wealth of future generations may strengthen the case for preserving environmental amenities; lower discount rates should be applied to the far future, and special effort should be made to avoid actions that impose costs on future generations.

Summers, L.H. and R.J. Zeckhauser (2008). "Policymaking for Posterity." NBER Working Paper No. 14359, Sept 2008.

Estimation of Substitution Elasticities for CGE Models.

by Azusa Okagawa and Kanemi Ban

- This study estimates nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions using panel data for OECD countries to help improve the reliability of CGE models for climate policy. Results show higher values for substitution elasticities closely related to energy inputs for energy-intensive industries and lower values for other industries compared to the conventional values often used in existing models. With the new parameters estimated, it is found that conventional parameters could overestimate the necessary carbon price by 44%.

Okagawa, A. and K. Ban (2008). "Estimation of Substitution Elasticities for CGE Models." Osaka University, Apr 2008.

November 16, 2008

Bringing the Copenhagen Global Climate Change Negotiations to Conclusion.

by John Whalley and Sean Walsh

- The authors discuss the global negotiations aimed at achieving new climate change mitigation and other arrangements after 2012. They highlight both the vast scope and vagueness of the negotiating mandate, the many outstanding major issues to be accommodated between negotiating parties, the lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation, and their short time frame. The likely lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries (some to a major degree), the effective absence in Kyoto of compliance/enforcement mechanisms, and growing linkage to non-climate change areas (principally trade) all further complicate the task of bringing the negotiation to conclusion.

Whalley, J. and S. Walsh (2008). "Bringing the Copenhagen Global Climate Change Negotiations to Conclusion." CESifo Working Paper No. 2458, Nov 2008.

International Emission Permit Markets with Refunding.

by Hans Gersbach and Ralph Winkler

- The authors propose a blueprint for an international emission permit market such as the EU trading scheme. Each country decides on the amount of permits it wants to offer. A fraction of these permits is grandfathered, the remainder is auctioned. Revenues from the auction are collected in a global fund and reimbursed to member countries in fixed proportions. They show that international permit markets with refunding lead to outcomes in which all countries tighten the issuance of permits and are better off compared to standard international permit markets. If the share of grandfathered permits is sufficiently small, it is possible to obtain approximately socially optimal emission reductions.

Gersbach, H. and R. Winkler (2008). "International Emission Permit Markets with Refunding." CEPR Discussion Papedr DP7035, Nov 2008.

Metrics for Evaluating Policy Commitments in a Fragmented World: The Challenges of Equity and Integrity.

by Carolyn Fischer and Richard Morgenstern

- Despite the uncertainties about the nature and stringency of national emission reduction commitments, some things are clear: the international negotiations not only will include national targets and timetables, but also will have to take account of diverse policies and measures undertaken by individual nations, including those inside the current Kyoto group, as well as among developing countries. The evaluation of these diverse policies poses a number of challenges. For example, how can one assess the fairness of the relative contributions of different nations? And even if fairness is agreed upon, how is it possible to determine the credibility of the commitments?

Fisher, C. and R. Morgenstern (2008). "Metrics for Evaluating Policy Commitments in a Fragmented World: The Challenges of Equity and Integrity." Discussion Paper 08-17, Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Nov 2008.

Clean and Productive? Evidence from the German Manufacturing Industry.

by Christoph Böhringer, Ulf Moslener, Ulrich Oberndorfer und Andreas Ziegler

- This paper analyzes the productivity effects of environmental (green) investment as well as of environmental expenditures and energy expenditures. The authors follow a production function approach where they account for these investment and expenditure categories as inputs. Based on a panel dataset for the German manufacturing industry between 1996 and 2002 they find that both environmental and energy expenditures do not contribute to production growth. In contrast, environmental investment positively impinges upon production growth as a productivity driver.

Böhringer, C., U. Moslener, U. Oberndorfer and A. Ziegler (2008). "Clean and Productive? Evidence from the German Manufacturing Industry." ZEW Discussion Paper No. 08-091, Nov 2008.

Maximising the Environmental Benefits of Europe's Bioenergy Potential.

by the European Environmental Agency

- This report assesses the environmental impacts of various ways of converting the technical bioenergy potential into electricity, heat and biofuels. It is based on 2006 EEA report "How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harmig the environment".

EEA (2008). "Maximising the Environmental Benefits of Europe's Bioenergy Potential." Technical report No 10/2008, Nov 2008.

Towards an Understanding of Tradeoffs Between Regional Wealth, Tightness of a Common Environmental Constraint and the Sharing Rules.

by Raouf Boucekkine, Jacek B. Krawczyk and Thomas Vallee

- Consider a country with two regions that have developed differently so that their current levels of energy efficiency differ. Each region’s production involves the emission of pollutants, on which a regulator might impose restrictions. The restrictions can be related to pollution standards that the regulator perceives as binding the whole country (e.g., enforced by international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol). This paper proposes a game theoretic model with a coupled constraints equilibrium as a solution to the regulator’s problem of avoiding excessive pollution. The regulator can direct the regions to implement the solution by using a political pressure, or compel them to employ it by using the coupled constraints’ Lagrange multipliers as taxation coefficients. However, to implement the solution, a coupled constraints equilibrium needs to exist and must also be unique.

Boucekkine, R., J.B. Krawczyk and T. Vallee (2008). "Towards an Understanding of Tradeoffs Between Regional Wealth, Tightness of a Common Environmental Constraint and the Sharing Rules." CORE Discussion Paper 2008-35, Nov 2008.

Understanding Crude Oil Prices.

by James D. Hamilton

- This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.

Hamilton, J.D. (2008). "Understanding Crude Oil Prices." NBER Working Paper No. 14492, Nov 2008.

November 9, 2008

The U.S. Election and Prospects for a New Climate Agreement.

by Elliot Diringer

- After years of stalemate in the international climate negotiations, the inauguration of a new U.S. president presents an opportunity for a genuine breakthrough. Both John McCain and Barack Obama support mandatory limits on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and both favor renewed international engagement. But unrealistic expectations about how quickly the United States will move – and how far – could severely damage prospects for any sort of agreement next year in Copenhagen.

Diringer, E. (2008). "The U.S. Election and Prospects for a New Climate Agreement." The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Nov 2008.

Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy.

by Warwick McKibbin, Adele Morris and Peter Wilcoxen

- In this paper the authors examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: a globally-harmonized carbon tax; a global cap and trade system; and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid. They use the G-Cubed dynamic general equilibrium model to explore how the shocks would affect emissions, prices, incomes, and wealth under each regime.

McKibbin, W., A. Morris and P. Wilcoxen (2008). "Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy." Discussion Paper 08-16, Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Nov 2008.

Understanding Errors in EIA Projections of Energy Demand.

by Carolyn Fischer, Evan M Herrnstadt and Richard D. Morgenstern

- This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand as measured in physical quantities. Overall, based on an analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, it is found a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year over the one- to five-year projection horizon after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days.

Fisher, C., E.M. Herrnstadt and R.D. Morgenstern (2008). "Understanding Errors in EIA Projections of Energy Demand." RFF Discussion Paper 07-54, Nov 2008.

A Bottom-Up Analysis of Including Aviation within the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

by Alice Bows and Kevin Anderson

- This analysis quantifies the contribution of the aviation industry to future EU climate change targets. Moreover, it assesses the implications of including aviation within the EU’s emissions trading scheme. Results indicate that unless the scheme adopts both an early baseline year and an overall cap designed to be in keeping with a 450ppmv cumulative emission pathway, the impact on aviation emissions will be minimal.

Bows, A. and K. Anderson (2008). "A bottom-up analysis of including aviation within the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme." Tyndall Centre Working Paper 126, Nov 2008.

Political Institutions and Greenhouse Gas Controls.

by Lee Lane and David Montgomery.

- Research and insights taken from the field of political economy suggest that institutions limit the extent to which efficient policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be adopted. High transaction costs among nations, as well as domestic constraints like voter xenophobia and distrust of markets in the U.S. and ineffective legal and economic institutions in China, discourage international agreement. The U.S. must focus upon limiting economic harm from adopting poorly designed policies and developing strategies for adaptation or technology-driven geoengineering. Most importantly, the lessons of political economy must become central to the study of climate policy.

Lane, L. and D. Montgomery (2008). "Political Institutions and Greenhouse Gas Controls." Reg-Market Center, Related Publication 08-09, Nov 2008.

The Kyoto Policy Process in Perspective: Long-term Concentration Targets versus Short-term Emissions.

by Andriy Bun

- Building upon the preparatory detection of emission changes (emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol, this study addresses the problem of correcting allowable mid-term emission windows that have been suggested to link short-term emission commitments with long-term concentration targets. Correction of the emission windows accounts for our inappropriate knowledge of emissions at the scale of countries and the risk that true (unknown) emissions can exceed observed emissions.

Bun, A. (2008). "The Kyoto Policy Process in Perspective: Long-term Concentration Targets versus Short-term Emissions." IIASA Interim Report IR-08-034, Nov 2008.

Preparatory Signal Detection for the EU-27 Member States Under EU Burden Sharing - Advanced Monitoring Including Uncertainty (1990-2005).

by Khrystyna Hamal and Matthias Jonas

- This study follows up IIASA Interim Report IR-04-024 (Jonas et al., 2004a), which addresses the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. The question probed was how well do we need to know net emissions if we want to detect a specified emission signal after a given time? The authors used the Protocol’s Annex B countries as net emitters and referred to all Kyoto GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) excluding CO2 emissions/removals due to land-use change and forestry (LUCF).

Hamal, K. and M. Jonas (2008). "Preparatory Signal Detection for the EU-27 Member States Under EU Burden Sharing - Advanced Monitoring Including Uncertainty (1990-2005)." IIASA Interim Report IR-08-037, Nov 2008.

Explaining the Causes of Deforestation with the Hyde Model (A Conceptual Framework).

by Yengoh Ty

- Using the Hyde Model of forest land use change and tools of systems analysis, this paper builds a conceptual framework to analyze causes of deforestation. It identifies demand for forest land and resources as the underlying driver of deliberate deforestation. It distinguishes between determinants of demand for forest land/resources and direct causes of deforestation. Demand is an indirect cause which can only lead to deforestation through its effect on other factors (direct causes).

Ty, Y. (2008). "Explaining the Causes of Deforestation with the Hyde Model (A Conceptual Framework)." IIASA Interim Report IR-08-039, Nov 2008.

Energy Intensity, Renewable Energy, and Economic Development: Examining Three Provinces in China.

by Ning Wu

- China has incurred a steady decrease of energy intensity (EI, energy consumption per unit of GDP) since the 1980s. Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Ningxia: they represent three typical EI trends in China, increasing, nearly constant, and decreasing. This paper examines underneath reasons for differences in energy intensity trends.

Wu, Ning (2008). "Energy Intensity, Renewable Energy, and Economic Development: Examining Three Provinces in China." USAEE Working Paper No. WP 08-011, Nov 2008.

How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?

by Shanjun Li, Roger von Haefen and Christopher Timmins

- Exploiting a rich data set of passenger vehicle registrations in twenty U.S. metropolitan statistical areas from 1997 to 2005, the authors examine the effects of gasoline prices on the automotive fleet's composition. They find that high gasoline prices affect fleet fuel economy through two channels: (1) shifting new auto purchases towards more fuel-efficient vehicles, and (2) speeding the scrappage of older, less fuel-efficient used vehicles.

Li, S., R. von Haefen and C. Timmins (2008). "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?" NBER Working Paper No. 14450, Oct 2008.

November 4, 2008

International Forest Carbon Sequestration in a Post-Kyoto Agreement.

by Andrew J. Plantinga and Kenneth R. Richards

- This paper considers alternative ways to include forest carbon management within the framework of an international climate treaty. The authors conclude that project-by-project accounting, as under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, is fundamentally flawed due to problems with additionality, leakage, and permanence; National-level accounting linked to an emissions trading program offers much more promise.

Plantinga, A.J. and K.R. Richards (2008). "International Forest Carbon Sequestration in a Post-Kyoto Agreement." Discussion Paper 08-11, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Oct 2008.

A Portfolio System of Climate Treaties.

by Scott Barrett

- The current climate regime, which focuses on reducing (net) emissions, can be improved in two ways. First, by breaking up the problem, and addressing each part separately, but treating all parts as a system of agreements, new possibilities emerge for enforcement. Second, by incorporating adaptation, "geoengineering," and the risks associated with mitigation options (such as long term storage of nuclear waste and carbon dioxide) in a portfolio of agreements, more opportunities open up for risk management. A portfolio system of climate treaties would be superior to today's single-track architecture.

Barrett, S. (2008). "A Portfolio System of Climate Treaties." Discussion Paper 08-13, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Oct 2008.

The Case for Charges on Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

by Richard N. Cooper

- The proposal discussed in this paper is to levy a common charge on all emissions of greenhouse gases, worldwide. All countries would be covered in principle, but the proposal could be implemented with a much smaller number of countries, provided they covered most of the emissions. While all greenhouse gases should in principle be covered. The charge would be internationally adjusted from time to time, and each country would collect and keep the revenue it generated.

Cooper, R.N. (2008). "The Case for Charges on Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Discussion Paper 08-10, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Oct 2008.

International Climate Technology Strategies.

by Richard G. Newell

- This paper considers opportunities for improved and expanded international development and transfer of climate technologies. The paper concludes that a successful international effort to accelerate and then sustain the rate of development and transfer of GHG mitigation technologies must harness a diverse set of markets and institutions beyond those explicitly related to climate, to include those for energy, trade, development, and intellectual property.

Newell, R.G. (2008). "International Climate Technology Strategies." Discussion Paper 08-12, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Oct 2008.

How Far Can Developing Country Commitments Go in an Immediate Post-2012 Climate Regime?

by ZhongXiang Zhang

- To point out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations, the paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime. The paper argues that developing country commitments are most unlikely to go beyond the defined polices and measures in this timeframe. On this basis, the paper suggests that, rather than attempting the unrealistic goal, international climate negotiations may instead need to initially frame the post-2012 developing country participation in terms of certain policies and policies as envisioned a decade ago.

Zhang, Z.X. (2008). "How Far Can Developing Country Commitments Go in an Immediate Post-2012 Climate Regime?" Available at SSRN, Oct 2008.

Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy.

by Jeffrey Frankel

- The global climate regime and the global trade policy regime are on a collision course. National efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) instill among environmentalists fears of leakage and among businesspeople fears of lost competitiveness. Trade measures, if well designed, could in theory be WTO-compatible. This paper contains specific recommendations for how border measures could be designed so that they were more likely to be true to the goal of reducing leakage and yet consistent with the WTO.

Frankel, J. (2008). "Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy." Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper 08-14, Oct 2008.

In-Use Vehicle Emissions in China - Tianjin Study.

by Hongyan He Oliver

- China is one of the fastest growing auto markets in the world. From 1990 to 2007, the total number of registered civil-use vehicles in China grew from 5.5 million to 57 million. Consequently, vehicle emissions have become an increasingly conspicuous contributor to air pollution in Chinese urban areas. Despite the fact that China has made much progress in setting up standards regulating new vehicle emissions and fuel quality, the understanding of environmental performance of in-use vehicles has been rather poor. This study contains some important insights regarding vehicle emissions control in China.

Oliver, H.H. (2008). "In-Use Vehicle Emissions in China - Tianjin Study." Cambridge, Mass.: Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Oct 2008.

Effects of Climate Policies on Air Pollutants in the Netherlands.

by P. Hammingh, K. Smekens, R. Koelemeijer, B. Daniels and P. Kroon

- Overall, for air quality, the Dutch climate policy plan ‘Clean and Efficient' appears to work out well. However, its effect on air quality also remains largely uncertain, partly due to uncertainties around the effectiveness of individual climate measures. For instance, implementing the use of biofuels and the large-scale capture and storage of carbon dioxide could both turn out to have an unfavourable effect on air quality.

Hammingh, P., K. Smekens, R. Koelemeijer, B. Daniels and P. Kroon (2008). "Effects of Climate Policies on Air Pollutants in the Netherlands. First results of the Dutch Policy Research Programme on Air and Climate (BOLK)." The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Oct 2008.

China’s Participation in Global Environmental Negotiations.

by Huifang Tian and John Whalley

- This paper discusses China's participation in both the 2009 Copenhagen negotiations on a post-Kyoto global climate change regime currently under way and out beyond Copenhagen in further negotiations likely to follow. The broad approach seems likely to be to take on environmental commitments in part in return for stronger guarantees of access to export markets abroad. This involves directly linked trade and environmental commitments. More narrowly, the issues that seem likely to dominate the climate change negotiating agenda from China's viewpoint are the interpretation of the common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle adopted in Kyoto, the choice of negotiating instruments and form of emission commitments, and the size (and form) of accompanying financial funds for adaptation and innovation.

Tian, H. and J. Whalley (2008). "China’s Participation in Global Environmental Negotiations." NBER Working Paper No. 14460, Oct 2008.

Issues Behind Competitiveness and Carbon leakage - Focus on heavy Industry.

by Julia Reinaud

- This report explores the vulnerability of heavy industry to carbon leakage and competitiveness loss. It reviews the existing literature on competitiveness and carbon leakage under uneven climate policies. It also suggests a statistical method to track carbon leakage, and applies this methodology to Phase I of the EU emissions trading scheme, for various industrial activities: iron and steel, cement, aluminium and refineries. Finally, it reviews measures to mitigate carbon leakage, as discussed in Australia, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the US.

Reinaud, J. (2008). "Issues Behind Competitiveness and Carbon leakage - Focus on heavy Industry." IEA Information paper, Oct 2008.

Carbon Markets, Institutions, Policies, and Research.

by Donald F. Larson, Philippe Ambrosi, Ariel Dinar, Shaikh Mahfuzur Rahman and Rebecca Entler

- This paper describes institutions and policies important for new carbon markets and explains their origins. Research efforts that explore conceptual aspects of current policy are surveyed along with empirical studies that make predictions about how carbon markets will work and perform. The authors summarize early investment and price outcomes from newly formed markets and point out areas where markets have preformed as predicted and areas where markets remain incomplete. Overall the scale of carbon-market investment planned exceeds earlier expectations, but the geographic dispersion of investment is uneven and important opportunities for abatement remain untapped in some sectors.

Larson, D.F., P. Ambrosi, A. Dinar, S.M. Rahman and R. Entler (2008). "Carbon Markets, Institutions, Policies, and Research." World Bank Policy Research working paper no. WPS 4761, Oct 2008.

Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

by Yasser Al-Saleh, Paul Upham and Khaleel Malik

- This paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.

Al-Saleh, Y., P. Upham and K. Malik (2008). "Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia." Tyndall Centre Working Paper 125, Oct 2008.