April 27, 2008

Energy Security, Air Pollution, and Climate Change: an Integrated Cost-Benefit Approach.

A combined cost-benefit analysis on energy security, local air pollution and global climate change shows that integrated policies can generate net welfare benefits. Furthermore, the CO2 emission reductions in Europe for the medium term can be significant. This finding demonstrates the mutual relevance of, and interaction between, policies designed to, simultaneously, address energy security, local air pollution, and global climate change.

Bollen, J.. "Energy security, air pollution, and climate change: an integrated cost-benefit approach." Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, EMP Report no. 500094004, Apr 2008.

Consequences of the European Policy Package on Climate and Energy. Initial assessment of the consequences for the Netherlands and other Member States.

National targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will become less important when the proposals by the European Commission on Climate and Energy, released earlier this year, will be approved by the European Parliament and the European Council. The proposals shift more of the responsibility for climate policy to the European level: after 2012 national caps for greenhouse gas emissions will partly become defunct.

Olivier, J.G.J., E. Tuinstra, H.E. Elzenga, R.A. van den Wijngaart, P.R. Bosch, B. Eickhout, M. Visser, A.W.N. van Dril, B.W. Daniels. "Consequences of the European Policy Package on Climate and Energy. Initial assessment of the consequences for the Netherlands and other Member States." Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, EMP Report no. 500094009, Apr 2008.

Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry.

This paper investigates the potential production and implications of a global biofuels industry. Alternative approaches to the introduction of land as an economic factor input into a computable general equilibrium framework are developed. Both approach allows us to parameterize biomass production in a manner consistent with agro-engineering information on yields and a "second generation" cellulosic biomass conversion technology.

Gurgel, A., J. Reilly and S. Paltsev. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry." MIT Global Change Joint Program, Report 155, Apr 2008.

Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise.

To improve the estimate of economic costs of future sea-level rise associated with global climate change, this report generalizes the sea-level rise cost function originally proposed by Fankhauser, and applies it to a new database on coastal vulnerability developed as part of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) tool. Numerical calculations are performed, applying the cost function to the DIVA database and socioeconomic scenarios from the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model.

Sugiyama, M., R.J. Nicholls and A. Vafeidis. "Estimating the Economic Cost of Sea-Level Rise." MIT Global Change Joint Program, Report 156, Apr 2008.

Analysis of the Coal Sector Under Carbon Constraints.

Application of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to assessment of the future of coal under climate policy revealed the need for an improved representation of load dispatch in the representation of the electric sector. A new dispatching algorithm is described and the revised model is applied to an analysis of the future of coal use to 2050 and 2100 under alternative assumptions about CO2 prices, nuclear expansion and prices of natural gas.

McFarland, J.R., S. Paltsev and H.D. Jacoby. "Analysis of the Coal Sector Under Carbon Constraints." MIT Global Change Joint Program, Report 158, Apr 2008.

Impact of sulfur and carbonaceous emissions from international shipping on aerosol distributions and direct radiative forcing.

This study indicates that international shipping can be a non-negligible factor in determining the radiative forcing of aerosols over specific regions with intensive ship activities. These places include the European, eastern Asian, and American coastal regions.

Wang, C., and D. Kim. "Impact of sulfur and carbonaceous emissions from international shipping on aerosol distributions and direct radiative forcing." MIT Global Change Joint Program, Report 159, Apr 2008.

April 21, 2008

Dynamic Models for International Environmental Agreements.

This paper develops a model to analyze, in a dynamic framework, how countries join international environmental agreements (IEAs). A mechanism to describe how countries reach a stable IEA is proposed. The model is able to capture situations with partial cooperation in an IEA stable over time. It also captures situations where all countries participate in a stable agreement, or situations where no stable agreement is feasible.

Breton, M., L. Sbraiga, G. Zaccour. "Dynamic Models for International Environmental Agreements." Feem Nota di Lavoro 33.2008, Apr 2008.

Sticks and Carrots for the Design of International Climate Agreements with Renegotiations.

This paper examines stability of international climate agreements for carbon abatement under an optimal transfer rule and renegotiations. The optimal transfer rule suggested to stabilise international environmental agreements (Weikard 2005, Carraro, Eyckmans and Finus 2006) is no longer optimal when agreements are renegotiated. Conditions for optimal self-enforcing sequences of agreements are determined.

Weikard, H.P. and R. Dellink. "Sticks and Carrots for the Design of International Climate Agreements with Renegotiations." Feem Nota di Lavoro 15.2008, Apr 2008.

Differential adaptation strategies to climate change in African cropland by agro-ecological zones.

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes.

Seo, N., R. Mendelsohn, P. Kurukulasuriya, A. Dinar and R. Hassan. "Differential adaptation strategies to climate change in African cropland by agro-ecological zones." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 4600, Apr 2008.

A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa.

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project.

Seo, N., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, R. Hassan and P. Kurukulasuriya. "A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 4599, Apr 2008.

Long-term adaptation : selecting farm types across agro-ecological zones in Africa.

Using economic data from more than 8,500 household surveys across 10 African countries, this paper examines whether the choice of farm type depends on the climate and agro-ecological zone of each farm. The paper also studies how farm type choice varies across farmers in each zone, using a multinomial logit choice model. The authors compare current decisions against future decisions as if the only change were climate change.

Seo, N., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, P. Kurukulasuriya and R. Hassan. "Long-term adaptation : selecting farm types across agro-ecological zones in Africa." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 4602, Apr 2008.

A European Perspective on Recent Trends in U.S. Climate Policy.

This study provides an overview on current trends in U.S. climate policy. Besides the main elements of national climate policy proposals and state-level initiatives the climate contents in the U.S. presidential candidates’ agendas are outlined. Based on this overview recent trends in U.S. climate policy are related to the European approach to combat climate change.

Moslener, U and B. Sturm. "A European Perspective on Recent Trends in U.S. Climate Policy." ZEW Discussion Paper No. 08-026, Apr 2008.

A structural ricardian analysis of climate change impacts and adaptations in African agriculture.

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops. With a hot dry climate scenario, the Structural Ricardian model predicts that farm income will fall 50 percent but the fixed farm type model predicts farm incomes will fall 75 percent.

Seo, N. and R. Mendelsohn. "A structural ricardian analysis of climate change impacts and adaptations in African agriculture." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS 4603, Apr 2008.

Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions.

What have we learned from the outpouring of literature as a result of the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change? A lot. We have explored the model space and the parameter space much more thoroughly, though there are still unexplored regions. In particular we need to understand better how climate change affects natural capital - the natural environment and the ecosystems comprising it - and how these affect human welfare.

Heal, G. . "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions." NBER Working Paper No. 13927, Mar 2008.

Reducing Deforestation and Trading Emissions: Economic Implications for the Post-Kyoto Carbon Market.

This paper quantitatively assesses the economic implications of crediting carbon abatement from reduced deforestation for the emissions market in 2020 by linking a numerical equilibrium model of the global carbon market with a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the forestry sector. We find that integrating avoided deforestation in international emissions trading considerably decreases the costs of post-Kyoto climate policy.

Anger, N and J. Sathaye. "Reducing Deforestation and Trading Emissions: Economic Implications for the Post-Kyoto Carbon Market." Centre for European Economic Research, Vol. 08, No. 16, 2008, available at SSRN, Apr 2008.

Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research.

This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research.

Giupponi, C., J. Mysiak and A. Sgobbi. "Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research." Feem Nota di Lavoro 13.2008, Mar 2008.

The Economics of Geological CO2 Storage and Leakage.

This paper presents an analysis of the economic and climatic implications of the large-scale use of CCS for reaching a stringent climate change control target, when geological CO2 leakage is accounted for. We find CCS to remain a valuable option even with CO2 leakage of a few %/yr, well above the maximum seepage rates that we think are likely from a geo-scientific point of view.

van der Zwaan, B. and R. Gerlagh. "The Economics of Geological CO2 Storage and Leakage." Feem Nota di Lavoro 10.2008, Mar 2008.